Wednesday, November 4, 2009

Chad's Takes -- Election Night Live Blog!

The following is from a Live Blog I hosted on Facebook on Election Night 2009. References to comments will obviously not make sense in the blurbs below. However, most of it is relevant.

7:45 am -- For some post-mortem:

ME repeals same-sex marriage, Houston mayoral race heads to a run-off, civil unions are a go in WA. I think CNN headline of "big night for GOP" is misleading. However, incumbents beware. The House may be headed for a big shake-up next year.

12:00 am -- Last entry. What to take from tonight? Unless the conditions in America change dramatically in the next year -- incumbents, look out. Have a good night. A far less political post tomorrow.

11:57 pm -- Atlanta mayoral race heads to runoff.

11:55 pm -- CNN projects Owens for NY-23. Counts continue to show statistical close call.

11:53 pm -- General conclusions tonight: Same-sex marriage remains a big problem. (Not looking good in ME.) Civil unions (i.e., "everything but marriage") not a problem (looking good in WA). Incumbents did poorly in mayoral and gubernatorial races. Democrats gained two seats in Congress. Repudiation of far-right generally and Sarah Palin et al. in particular evident. Exit polls suggest elections were not necessarily a "referendum on Obama", but characteristics of the voting bloc show disinterest among core Obama supporters.

11:44 pm -- Owens giving acceptance speech in NY.

11:42 pm -- Incumbent governors do well when the economy is good and poorly when it isn't? Profound. (re: Hardball)

11:34 pm -- Garamendi (D) way ahead in CA-10. Just a thought. Democrats gained two seats in Congress tonight.

11:32 pm -- NBC is questionably projecting Owens the winner in NY-23. Statistically too close to call, IMO.

11:29 pm -- More on NY 23rd:

11:28 pm -- Another 30-minute extension. Updates on ME, NY, WA, and CA coming soon.

11:24 pm -- Civil unions in WA appear to be a go. (re: Referendum 71)

11:22 pm -- Chris Matthews again making sense. Indicating that Christie and McDonnell (R - VA) are center-right, not far-right. The far right is not winning elections tonight, as supported by VA/NJ/NY. Interesting and valid argument. Repudiation of the conservative movement, or "spin" as 538 says below?

11:19 pm -- 538 twitter: "Hoffman has conceded. Everybody will have something to spin tomorrow." Hahaha.

11:16 pm -- Scozzafava (R) can be blamed for the Hoffman loss. Her endorsement of Owens (D) over Hoffman (C), and her approximately 6500+ votes (87% reporting) exceeds the difference between Owens and Hoffman. Remember, absentee ballots likely contain a large number of Scozzafava votes since she announced her withdrawal this past weekend. Classic MAD in the political world tonight.

11:14 pm -- BIG news. Hoffman has conceded to Owens in NY 23rd, even when statistics say too close to call. Historic night in upstate New York.

11:11 pm -- Wow, Mark Williams is the recipient of a roasting. Bordering comedy.

11:10 pm -- Chris Matthews SCHOOLING a Republican guest right now.

11:09 pm -- St. Lawrence County is fairly rural, and there continues to be a lot of votes to be counted from there. Don't count Hoffman out yet.

11:04 pm -- Geography correction. Watertown is NOT in St. Lawrence County.

11:02 pm -- OH looks to approve casinos, according to Rachel Maddow.

11:00 pm -- 70% of precincts reporting: Same-sex marriage in definite trouble in ME -- 52%/48% to reject/retain. Medical marijuana use expansion overwhelmingly supported in ME.

10:59 pm -- I'm extending live blog for thirty minutes.

10:53 pm -- 85% of precincts reporting in NY 23rd. Owens leads by slightly more than 4000, with trend upward throughout the evening. This is because the county with the most votes remaining to be counted is St. Lawrence County (Watertown), which is somewhat less conservative (See 538 link below). Remember, 11,000 absentee votes remain. The election will not be called tonight.

10:49 pm -- Same-sex marriage in ME in trouble. 65% of precincts reporting: 51%/48% to reject/retain.

10:47 pm --

10:42 pm -- Check out Kevin's link below for updates on NY 23rd. With absentee ballots (over 11,000) not going to be counted tonight, my guess is there will be no winner by dawn tomorrow.

10:37 pm -- ME vote still strong for expanding marijuana use. 60% favor it, with 51% of precincts reporting. Also, good interview between Rachel Maddow and Lawrence O'Donnell.

10:36 pm -- CNN and AP reporting that Question 1 is at a statistical tie (50/50) with 51% of precincts reporting (ME).

10:30 pm -- Wow, NY 23rd remains within 4000 votes with 76% of precincts reporting. The Republican who withdrew from the race has more votes than the difference between the Democrat and the Conservative Party candidate.

10:27 pm -- Just a reminder that same-sex marriage amendments/referendums have a 0% success rate. That is, no vote for upholding/supporting same-sex marriage has ever occurred.

10:22 pm -- Retaining same-sex marriage in ME has a very small advantage (51%/49%) with 28% of precincts reporting, according to CNN.

10:20 pm -- Classy attendees for the Christie acceptance speech.

10:18 pm -- Hahaha. Chris Christie saying, "Yes, we did!" Ouch.

10:15 pm -- ME seems to be favoring expanding the use of medical marijuana, according to early counts.

10:11 pm -- Voters in exit polls in NJ show a 57% approval rating for Obama, and a strong majority were not voting because of Obama -- this despite a Republican challenger winning the governor's race.

10:09 pm -- Question 1 in ME too close to call, according to CNN. Question 1 regards same-sex marriage.

10:05 pm -- Corzine (D - NJ) concedes.

10:04 pm -- 23rd NY update: less than 3000 vote difference with 69% of the precincts reporting. Wow! Owens is leading.

10:01 pm -- MSNBC projects Bloomberg as the winner.

9:54 pm -- Read Patrick's comment below, as he contends (and I agree) that the candidates themselves may have been more likely reasons for the vote counts.

9:52 pm -- Charlotte votes for first Democrat as mayor in 30 years.

9:51 pm -- Three votes to keep track of: Houston mayor race (potentially an openly gay mayor), and ME and WA votes on same-sex marriage. (It should be noted that Maine's vote is nearly equivalent to California's last year. Washington's is about civil unions.)

9:47 pm -- Also, remember, Bloomberg helped lift the term limit rule for mayors in NYC.

9:45 pm -- CNN reports that Bloomberg outspent his opponent (Bill Thompson - D) by 1000% on TV ads.

9:43 pm -- Turnout in ME may exceed 50%? Voters there appear to care about same-sex marriage and marijuana use.

9:41 pm -- NY 23rd: 21% reporting with a 2000 vote lead for Bill Owens (D). Because a total of 30,000 votes have been counted, I'd say this one is close.

9:37 pm -- Why isn't MSNBC updating NY 23rd results?

9:34 pm -- Bloomberg's lead widening. They'll probably have to "re-call" that one soon.

9:32 pm -- Two votes I'm particularly interested in: The NY 23rd and the CA 10th. The NY 23rd has been in the news for quite a while now since conservative Republicans supported the Conservative Party candidate, rather than the locally selected Republican nominee. The Republican nominee withdrew from the election this past weekend and endorsed the Democrat. So far, the election is very close, highly unusual for a substantially Republican district. The CA 10th, meanwhile, is expected to go Democrat in a very non-Democratic district (near the Sacramento area). Interestingly, both of these empty seats were because of Obama selections.

9:29 pm -- I'm watching MSNBC (surprise, surprise). Recently, Lawrence O'Donnell, Chris Matthews, and Howard Fineman were making a lot of sense regarding this year's elections. Particularly, two points: 1) Voters were against "the establishment". Incumbents are having a hard time in this year's elections, with Corzine in New Jersey and Bloomberg in NYC fighting for their lives. (It does look like Bloomberg will win, but it sure cost him a lot of money to squeak it out. Worth it?) Corzine, who outspent his opponent by leaps and bounds, looks to lose the election for governor in NJ. 2) The voting bloc who predominantly voted for Obama last year did not show up this year. Even as exit polls suggest much of the voting was not pro-/anti-Obama, the people who showed up at all may be a more telling sign.

9:25 pm -- A live blog for 1.5 hours. Enjoy!